Dissecting Training-Free Uncertainty Estimation in Multimodal Large Language Models
TL;DR
It is found that answer length decides which family wins: token-level entropy on short answers, verbalized methods on sentence-length responses, and semantic methods on long-form generation, and a length-aware recipe that additionally flags responses on which the model abstains outperforms every individual method on average.
Abstract
Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed in safety-critical settings, yet estimating when their answers can be trusted remains underexplored. We systematically compare training-free verbalized, token-level and semantic uncertainty estimation methods on twelve MLLMs and five VQA benchmarks. We find that answer length decides which family wins: token-level entropy on short answers, verbalized methods on sentence-length responses, and semantic methods on long-form generation. Token-level entropy becomes far more informative when estimated at a higher temperature than the low ones used to generate answers, and asking a model to judge its own answer becomes more reliable with model size. Building on this, a length-aware recipe that additionally flags responses on which the model abstains outperforms every individual method on average at about a quarter of the cost of semantic methods, although no method attains the coverage required for safe deployment. These results provide practitioners with principled guidance for selecting estimators by answer length and model scale.