Satellite- and Reanalysis-Based Assessment of Wind, Terrain, and Burn Severity During the May 2022 Suleiman Range Wildfire

Abstract

Wind is a fundamental driver of wildfire behavior, yet wind–fire relationships remain poorly characterized in the mountainous regions of South Asia, where ground-based observations are scarce. This study examines the wildfire in the Suleiman Range of western Pakistan for May 2022, integrating Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire detection, Landsat-derived burn severity, ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) meteorological data, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) topography data. Twenty-nine wildfire-classified detections (Fire Radiative Power, FRP range 6.0–52.1 megawatts (MW)) were analyzed across the Sherani, Musakhel, and Dera Ismail Khan (D.I. Khan) districts between 18 and 29 May 2022. The ERA5 wind speed at the fire points was moderately positively correlated with the FRP, although strong collinearity with temperature prevented the separation of the effects of wind and temperature. The wind direction was highly consistent throughout the event. Spread events were defined as consecutive detection pairs; among pairs separated by more than 2 km, four were aligned with the ERA5 downwind direction. These findings are consistent with synoptic winds broadly contributing to eastward fire progression, whereas local-scale spread was likely modulated by the terrain-channeled winds that ERA5 cannot resolve at its ~27 km grid scale. Elevation was strongly negatively correlated with the FRP. The burn severity analysis indicated that approximately 86 km2 of burn occurred, predominantly at low-to-moderate severity. This integrated workflow offers a transferable template for characterizing wildfire behavior in data-sparse mountainous regions.