The Role of China in the Formation of a New Balance of Power in Central Asia

Abstract

The article examines China’s role in reshaping the balance of power in Central Asia. Unlike the researchers that reduce the proper state’s attitude to military capabilities or to a simple sum of trade indexes, the author proposes an operational model of the countries’ features consisting of the following five groups of indicators: economic dependence, infrastructural connectivity, institutional density, security, and the diplomatic agency of the region’s states. Based on a comparative analysis of China, Russia, the EU, and the United States as well as case studies of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, the article shows that China is forming the most stable economic and infrastructural pole of influence, but it is not turning this region into a monolithic sphere of control. Central Asian states use the China factor to diversify routes, trade, and external relations, however, their range for maneuver is distinct: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan possess broader negotiating auton-omy, whereas Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are more sensitive to debt and infrastructure limits.