Global Emissions of Air Pollutants From Commercial and Residential Fuel Combustion 1970–2020: Trends, Technology Evolution, and Drivers
Abstract
The commercial and residential sector is a major global energy consumer, and its emission trends of air pollutants are strongly influenced by fuel transitions and technological evolution. Yet, the long‐term emission change patterns of individual countries under technological evolution remain poorly constrained. Here, we developed a new global emission inventory for commercial and residential fuel combustion from 1970 to 2020, by modeling national stove technology evolution and compiling a large ensemble of local emission factors. Our results reveal distinct regional emission trends for SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO, shaped by various factors including policy implementation, fuel consumption, transition in fuel mix, and technological evolution. Taking SO2 as an example, global emissions declined by 58% between 1970 and 2020, driven mainly by clean fuel transitions and technological improvements, despite a rebound in 2000–2010 linked to rising coal use in China and the Middle East and North Africa. Our work provides a new data set of global emissions from the commercial and residential sector with detailed information on technology evolution and thus could be used for designing regional emission mitigation strategies.