Triple-Coupling Impacts of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services in China’s Major Grain-Producing Areas Under SSP-RCP Scenarios

Abstract

Land-use change has become a major driver of ecosystem service loss, particularly in China’s main grain-producing regions, which underpin national food security. However, the spatial pathways through which cropland requisition–compensation policies redistribute these ecological costs remain insufficiently understood. Building on existing coupling concepts, this study applies a framework comprising Intra-coupling, Peri-coupling, and Tele-coupling to examine changes in carbon storage, soil retention, habitat quality, and water yield. Historical land-use data were obtained from ESA CCI-LC and future land-use data from a 1 km global projection dataset; climate, terrain, soil, and socioeconomic data were integrated on a common 100 m grid. InVEST and MGWR were used to assess ecosystem service changes and spatial drivers. For 2000–2020, historical data and model estimates showed that direct Intra-coupling Loss dominated the estimated losses, while the indirect pathways also made a non-negligible contribution; Tele-coupling Loss was concentrated in western Sichuan, western Hubei, and western Hunan. For 2020–2050, scenario-based projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 indicated greater urban expansion and Peri-coupling Loss under SSP5-8.5. Tele-coupling Loss approached zero under all three scenarios, conditional on the adopted scenario settings and allocation assumptions. These results inform coordinated land-use planning and cross-regional ecological compensation.