Arctic glacier mass change from GRACE/GRACE-FO: Regional variability, atmospheric drivers and rapid GIA

Abstract

Arctic glaciers are losing mass rapidly, but their regional variability reflects both atmospheric forcing and solid-Earth processes. We combine GRACE/GRACE-FO glacier mass balances with ESA CCI Permafrost and CALM observations to investigate common drivers of glacier melt and permafrost thaw. Two dominant modes of summer atmospheric circulation explain about 75% of their common pan-Arctic variability over 2002–2022. We further show that rapid viscoelastic rebound in low-viscosity regions such as Alaska and Iceland can substantially bias gravimetry-derived glacier trends if not accounted for. Together with recent GlaMBIE assessments, these results provide a broader view of Arctic glacier change, its climatic drivers, and remaining observational uncertainties.