Region-Specific Pathways for Synergistic Air Pollution and Carbon Mitigation in an Energy-Intensive Region

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and industrial expansion in energy-intensive regions continue to hinder the simultaneous mitigation of air pollutants and CO2 emissions, yet effective synergistic mitigation pathways remain poorly understood because highly industrialized border regions exhibit distinct emission structures and spatial heterogeneity. Here, we combined a newly developed georeferenced emission inventory comprising approximately 3600 industrial point sources with the Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model to assess future air pollutant and CO2 emission trajectories in the Urumqi–Changji–Shihezi (UCS) region during 2021–2035 under alternative policy scenarios, including a policy scenario representing the implementation of China’s Air Quality Continuous Improvement Action Plan. We found that emission co-hotspots were concentrated within the central UCS corridor, particularly around central Urumqi, where power and industrial activities jointly dominated emissions. Under the assumptions specified for the policy scenario, annual emissions of PM2.5, SO2, NOx, VOCs and CO2 were projected to decrease by 43%, 38%, 40%, 41%, and 34%, respectively, by 2035 relative to 2021, whereas NH3 emissions were projected to decline by only 5%. Owing to its high baseline emissions, Changji Prefecture contributed more than half of the regional emission reductions. Unlike the national transition, where power-sector emissions have largely been controlled, the greatest mitigation potential in this region remained concentrated in the power and industrial sectors. Expanding renewable electricity achieved the strongest air pollution–carbon co-benefits while avoiding the emission penalties associated with electrification under a coal-dominated electricity system. In addition, controlling industrial NH3 slip emerged as a critical local strategy complementing agricultural ammonia mitigation. These findings demonstrate that accelerating clean power development together with region-specific industrial emission controls is essential for maximizing synergies between air-pollutant emission reductions and climate mitigation.