Aug 2026· Nature Communications· Vol 17· 0 citations· 83 references
Medicine
Abstract
At volcanoes reawakening after prolonged quiescence, local seismicity commonly increases before eruption. The earthquakes occur as crust extends over a zone of pressurising fluid several kilometres underground. The deformation causes existing faults to slip and new fractures to open. An eruption is most likely when the fractures grow large enough to rupture the crust. Fracture growth coincides with a net decrease in the elastic energy stored in the crust. Here we present a method for following changes in stored energy through a balance between the energy supplied by the pressure source and lost by seismicity. We test the method against unrest sequences at two large calderas, Sierra Negra and Campi Flegrei. The results provide a practical procedure for identifying the onset of fracture growth and, hence, for recognising an increased potential for crustal rupture. In this study, the authors show that accelerating volcano-tectonic earthquakes can occur as crustal stress decreases and fractures weaken the crust, providing a way to recognise when a reawakening volcano may be approaching rupture.
Crustal faults across geological settings are often enriched in phyllosilicates because of the hydrothermal alteration of wall rocks. The frictional behavior of these altered rocks at mid-crustal conditions remains poorly understood. Here, we show that mica-schist gouge under crustal hydrothermal conditions can host mi...
S. E. Güvercin, S. Barbot, Lei Zhang et al.· Science Advances· 0 citations
Straight faults are considered prone to large supershear ruptures and seismic gaps to likely host future earthquakes. Both predictions may have been fulfilled in the magnitude (M) 7.7 Mandalay earthquake of 28 March 2025 on the Sagaing Fault. Exceptional video footage of the fault rupture, high-rate Global Navigation S...
Studies indicate that the Cascadia Subduction Zone is capable of producing great earthquakes, and, like many other subduction zones, it exhibits along-strike differences in rupture history and plate coupling. Paleoseismic data, locking models, and microseismicity point to a change in seismic behavior around 44.5°N, off...
Sarah Nolan, E. Hooft, A. Ashraf et al.· Seismica· 0 citations
Crustal permeability can be created through microearthquakes as observed at field and laboratory scales. The respective roles of seismic and aseismic slip in governing permeability evolution remain ill‐constrained. Here, we present observations of controlled pore pressure stepping experiments designed to distinguish th...
Jun-Peng Wang, Muhammad Edo Nurshal, P. Yu et al.· Geophysical Research Letters· 0 citations
Magma reservoirs commonly exist in clusters and situate within complex fault networks, yet sequential triggering of unrest at multiple reservoirs and faults is rarely observed. We show that the 2025 earthquake swarm in the Christiana-Santorini-Kolumbo complex of the Aegean Sea was driven by elastic stress transfer betw...
John D. Wilding, Tai-Yi A. Wang, Yuan-Kai Liu et al.· Science Advances· 0 citations
Megathrust faults in subduction zones often serve as seismogenic environments for destructive earthquakes. To verify whether the material properties of subduction zones influence aftershock propagation and earthquake magnitude, we investigated the northern Ecuador subduction zone using local 8G network data to locate s...
