Understanding Rural‐Driven Water Scarcity in China: Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers to Sustainable Water Management

Abstract

Water scarcity threatens the sustainability of global socio‐economic and ecological systems, with China facing particularly severe pressure. While urban water challenges have received wide attention, the role of rural residents—who account for a large share of China's population and whose consumption patterns strongly influence water use—remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study assesses the extent of rural consumption‐driven water scarcity and its underlying drivers across regional and sectoral scales. We integrate a multi‐regional input–output model with a potential water scarcity index for evaluating rural‐driven water scarcity in 313 administrative units of 42 sectors in China from 2012 to 2020, and apply structural decomposition analysis (SDA) for identifying the key driving factors. Results show that rural‐driven water scarcity fluctuated but declined overall. At the national level, production efficiency gains, technological advancement, and structural optimization alleviated water scarcity in most years. At the administrative level, these drivers displayed heterogeneous effects due to local characteristics. At the sectoral level, the number of industries with rising scarcity decreased, with technological progress emerging as the main mitigating force. Our findings underscore the crucial role of rural consumption in shaping China's water future and highlight the importance of integrating rural consumption into sustainable water management strategies to accelerate progress toward SDG 6.