Public Infrastructure Expenditure and Human Development in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Sectoral Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the effect of disaggregated public infrastructure expenditure on human development in Nigeria, with particular emphasis on road and construction, education, health, communication, and security infrastructure expenditures. Using annual data sourced from the World Bank, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate both short- and long-run relationships between public infrastructure expenditures and the Human Development Index (HDI) – the proxy for human development. The results indicate that road and construction, education, health, and communication infrastructure have positive and statistically significant effects on HDI in both the short and long run. Road and construction infrastructure record the largest estimated effect, while security infrastructure exhibits a positive but statistically insignificant relationship with HDI. The findings underscore the importance of sustained investment in infrastructure that enhances access to education, healthcare, mobility, and communication services. The study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that the human-development effects of infrastructure differ across infrastructure components, providing evidence relevant to infrastructure prioritization and development policy in Nigeria.