Assessing Flood Susceptibility Using Machine Learning in Arid Regions

Abstract

Flash floods are among the most destructive natural hazards, often causing substantial loss of life and severe damage to infrastructure and property. Predicting flood-prone areas remains challenging because flood generation is controlled by complex interactions among topographic, hydrological, climatic, and environmental factors. In this study, six machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier (DTC), AdaBoost, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN)—were developed to predict flash-flood inundation locations using satellite-derived flood inventories from two major rainfall events in Wadi El-Darb and Wadi El-Allaqi, Egypt. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. During model development, Random Forest and Decision Tree Classifier achieved the highest prediction accuracy (94%), followed by AdaBoost and ANN (92%), while Logistic Regression (89%) and SVM (88%) also produced satisfactory results. To evaluate model generalization, the trained models were independently validated using a rainfall event in Wadi Hodein (Egypt) and a major flash-flood event that occurred in Oman during April 2024. The external validation showed that AdaBoost achieved the highest predictive performance in both validation basins, with accuracies of 87% for Wadi Hodein and 83% for Oman, providing encouraging initial evidence of applicability across hydrologically similar arid watersheds, While AdaBoost and Logistic Regression maintained satisfactory performance during external validation, other algorithms exhibited noticeable reductions in recall and F1-score, particularly in the Oman case study, indicating variability in model generalization across independent watersheds These findings suggest that the proposed framework may support flood susceptibility assessment in ungauged arid environments with comparable hydrological characteristics, although further validation across a wider range of climatic and geological settings is needed. Overall, the results highlight the value of integrating satellite remote sensing with machine learning to support flood hazard assessment, disaster preparedness, early warning systems, and flood risk management in data-scarce regions.