THE EFFECTS AND MECHANISMS OF LAND TRANSFER IN PROMOTING LOW-CARBON PRODUCTION OF FOOD CROPS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PROVINCIAL PANEL DATA IN CHINA

Abstract

Against the background of food security and agricultural decarbonization, this study examines whether and how land transfer affects the carbon balance of grain production. Using panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2023, we construct a unified indicator of net carbon sink by combining carbon sequestration from rice, wheat and maize with carbon emissions from agricultural inputs and ricepaddy methane. Two-way fixed-effects, mediation and threshold models are employed to identify the direct effect, transmission channels and conditional factors. The results show that land transfer significantly increases the net carbon sink of grain production, and this conclusion remains valid after robustness and endogeneity tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that land transfer works mainly by expanding operational scale and raising rural residents’ income, with a positive interaction between these two channels. Threshold analysis further shows that fiscal support for agriculture and agricultural technological progress condition the magnitude of the effect. The findings suggest that well-regulated land transfer, combined with green technology adoption and targeted public support, can help improve the low-carbon performance of grain production while maintaining food security.