Analysis of the Achievement of Electric Vehicle Growth Targets in Indonesia

Abstract

The transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles has become a strategic priority for Indonesia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, strengthen energy security, decrease dependence on imported petroleum, and develop a competitive domestic electric-vehicle industry. The Indonesian government has targeted two million electric passenger cars in operation by 2030. However, the extent to which the observed growth trajectory is consistent with this target has not been sufficiently evaluated using an innovation-diffusion framework. This study evaluates the achievement and prospective attainability of Indonesia's electric passenger-car target using the Bass Diffusion Model. The analysis uses cumulative registered electric passenger-car data for 2020-2023, comprising 430, 1,708, 10,270, and 22,518 vehicles, respectively. Because only four annual observations were available and market diffusion remained at an early stage, the market potential parameter was fixed at 2,000,000 vehicles, corresponding to the government's 2030 target. The innovation and imitation coefficients were estimated using nonlinear least squares. The estimated coefficients were (p=0.000297) and (q=0.892868), indicating that prospective electric-vehicle diffusion is predominantly driven by imitation, social influence, market visibility, product availability, and network effects rather than independent innovator adoption. The model produced an (R A 2) of 0.9855 for the historical period and forecast cumulative adoption of approximately 55,632 vehicles in 2024, 131,495 in 2025, 294,090 in 2026, 593,148 in 2027, 1,014,982 in 2028, 1,431,437 in 2029, and 1,720,307 in 2030. Therefore, the model predicts achievement of approximately 86.02% of the government target in 2030, leaving a projected gap of 279,693 vehicles. The annual adoption flow is expected to peak around 2028. These results indicate that Indonesia's electric passenger-car market can enter a rapid growth phase, but the existing trajectory may remain insufficient to fully meet the 2030 target. Coordinated policies addressing vehicle affordability, charging accessibility, model availability, consumer confidence, electricity decarbonization, and domestic supply-chain capability are therefore required.