Dynamic evolution of alpine grassland social-ecological resilience and its characteristics based on the “components-attributes-capacities” framework: a case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of resilience of the alpine grassland social-ecological system is critical for safeguarding ecological security and promoting sustainable development in pastoral regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the “Components-Attributes-Capacities” analytical framework, this study investigates 21 prefecture-level administrative units across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and integrates the catastrophe progression method, three-dimensional kernel density estimation, Markov chains, self-organizing feature mapping (SOFM) networks and XGBoost-SHAP analysis to systematically characterize the spatiotemporal patterns, hierarchical transitions, and capacity combination modes of regional resilience from 2000 to 2024. The results indicate that: (1) Overall resilience exhibited a steady upward trend, while substantial differentiation emerged among the three subsystems. Economic resilience demonstrated a stepwise increase with pronounced north-south disparities; ecological resilience transitioned from a bimodal to a unimodal distribution, accompanied by enhanced diffusion effects, although moderate-resilience lock-in persisted in peripheral areas; and social resilience showed a balanced and inclusive improvement trajectory.(2) Resilience transitions exhibited strong club convergence characteristics. The self-maintenance probability of high-resilience states reached 93.3%-96.5%, whereas low-resilience regions primarily progressed through adjacent-level transitions, making leapfrog improvements difficult to achieve.(3) Five distinct resilience capacity combination patterns were identified, among which the socioeconomic synergistic type and adaptation-oriented type accounted for more than 50% of the total.(4) A strong synergistic relationship was observed between recovery capacity and adaptive capacity; however, significant resource competition and structural conflicts existed between social resistance capacity and ecological and economic resistance capacities. This study proposes a differentiated resilience governance framework characterized by targeted interventions, incremental breakthroughs, and synergistic management, providing theoretical insights and empirical evidence for enhancing resilience and ensuring ecological security in alpine pastoral regions.