Supply Chain Logistics Performance and Export Trade Competitiveness in Kenya

Abstract

Supply chain logistics performance has increasingly become a critical determinant of export competitiveness, particularly in developing economies where trade efficiency, infrastructure capacity, and logistics reliability significantly influence participation in international markets. Despite substantial investments in trade facilitation initiatives such as the expansion of the Port of Mombasa, development of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), and implementation of the National Electronic Single Window System, Kenya has continued to experience relatively modest export growth and limited export diversification compared to regional competitors. This study examined the influence of supply chain logistics performance on export trade competitiveness in Kenya by focusing on four key dimensions of logistics performance: customs clearance efficiency, trade and transport infrastructure quality, logistics service competence, and shipment tracking and tracing capability. Guided by Supply Chain Management Theory and Trade Facilitation Theory, the study evaluated how these logistics dimensions contribute to export competitiveness within the Kenyan context. The study adopted a longitudinal research design utilizing secondary annual data covering the period 2007–2024. Data were obtained from the World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), and Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA). Export trade competitiveness was measured using annual percentage growth in export volume, while logistics performance was measured using the relevant LPI indicators. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression techniques were employed to analyze the data. The descriptive findings revealed moderate improvements across all logistics dimensions during the study period, with shipment tracking and tracing capability recording the highest mean score, followed by logistics service competence, trade and transport infrastructure quality, and customs clearance efficiency. Correlation analysis indicated positive relationships between all logistics performance dimensions and export trade competitiveness. Logistics service competence exhibited the strongest association with export competitiveness (r = 0.75), followed by trade and transport infrastructure quality (r = 0.71), shipment tracking capability (r = 0.68), and customs clearance efficiency (r = 0.63). Regression results demonstrated that all four logistics dimensions significantly influenced export trade competitiveness. Logistics service competence emerged as the strongest predictor (β = 0.338, p = 0.003), followed by shipment tracking and tracing capability (β = 0.264, p = 0.012), trade and transport infrastructure quality (β = 0.246, p = 0.014), and customs clearance efficiency (β = 0.201, p = 0.029). The overall model explained 71% of the variation in export trade competitiveness (R² = 0.71), indicating substantial explanatory power. The study concludes that strengthening logistics performance remains essential for improving Kenya’s export competitiveness and recommends continued investment in infrastructure development, customs modernization, logistics service quality enhancement, and digital trade facilitation systems. Overall, the study affirms that supply chain logistics performance constitutes a strategic driver of export growth and international trade competitiveness in Kenya.