Machine learning-based prediction of prolonged length of stay in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease

Abstract

Background Older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) frequently experience prolonged length of stay (PLOS). This condition increases healthcare burden and worsens prognosis. However, no predictive model specifically addresses PLOS in this high-risk multimorbid population. Methods This single-center retrospective study included hospitalized older T2DM-CVD patients. PLOS was defined as hospital stay exceeding the 75th percentile of the training set population. Potential predictors were selected via LASSO regression. Eight machine learning (ML) models were developed to predict PLOS risk. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. SHAP analysis was employed for model interpretability. Results A total of 27,629 patients were included. The XGBoost model achieved the highest training AUC (0.819) and demonstrated competitive predictive performance in both the internal (AUC = 0.753) and time-based external (AUC = 0.728) validation sets. However, its performance advantage over simpler models such as logistic regression was modest in validation, and XGBoost showed some degree of overfitting (AUC drop of 0.066 from training to validation). Although logistic regression showed comparable validation performance with less overfitting, XGBoost was selected as the final model for its ability to capture complex nonlinear interactions and provide SHAP-based interpretability, with the understanding that further external validation is needed. Key predictors included cerebral infarction, white blood cell count, anemia, pulse rate, the glycated hemoglobin to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (GHR), and osteoporosis. Most continuous variables showed nonlinear associations with PLOS risk. Conclusions The XGBoost-based model effectively predicts PLOS risk in older T2DM-CVD patients. This tool shows promise for early identification of high-risk individuals and optimization of medical resource allocation within our institutional setting. However, further prospective and multi-center validation studies are required before clinical adoption.