The effect of climate change on populations of the Amazon endemic Xingu Screech Owl (Aves-Strigidae)

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change is restructuring ecological dynamics worldwide, with particularly severe impacts in tropical regions, especially forested areas. The Amazon ecosystem is currently undergoing rapid deforestation. The owl family, Strigidae, is especially sensitive to habitat disturbance and may have strong population declines due to environmental change. In this study, the potential effects of climate change were investigated with the recently recognized Xingu Screech-owl (Megascops stangiaeDantas, Weckstein, Bates, Oliveira, Catanach & Aleixo 2021) by applying species distribution models (SDMs) to predict how climatically suitable habitat will change over time. The M. stangiae is likely to be negatively impacted because of the loss of climatically suitable areas, because it is dependent on preserved forests. The owls’ distribution was modeled using occurrence records and bioclimatic variables under the current emissions scenario, as well as two future projections: optimistic and pessimistic. We found that both scenarios predicted a loss of more than half of the area suitable for the owl. Although M. stangiae is currently classified as least concern (LC) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List (IUCN), our findings indicate that the species may soon require being classified as critically endangered (CR). These results underscore the urgent need to understand the ecological consequences of climate change for Amazonian endemic species and to implement targeted conservation strategies.