Forecasting carbon-risk hotspots ahead of the extreme 2026 El Ni\~no

Abstract

A potentially super El Ni\~no is forecasted in 2026, raising the need to anticipate land carbon-cycle risks before its impacts unfold. We develop a prospective early-warning framework that uses dynamic global vegetation models driven by an ensemble of ECMWF seasonal climate forecasts and machine-learning burned area predictions. Forecasts indicate a $0.23 \pm 0.21$ PgC reduction in global net biome productivity in the second half of 2026, with hotspots of sink weakening in eastern South America and elevated fire risk in Southeast Asia.