In May 2019, unprecedented extreme rainfall over the central United States (US) facilitated severe flooding along the Arkansas River. The well‐documented relationship between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and central US heavy precipitation motivated investigation into AR relevance to this event and its predictability on extended timescales. AR conditions coinciding with the extreme precipitation indicate ARs contributed to the Arkansas River flooding, while poisson weighted forecast probabilities of SHiELD ensemble hindcasts show both the ARs and extreme precipitation were predictable at 2 week leads. Comparison of precursory atmospheric conditions between the top and bottom five performing ensemble members reveal the top performers developed a Rossby wave train over the North Pacific, which promoted AR‐favorable conditions downstream and facilitated better forecasts of precipitation than the bottom performers. Results suggest cross‐Pacific Rossby wave trains can provide a forecast of opportunity for extended predictability of ARs and extreme precipitation over the central US.
The flash flooding across Central Texas on 4 July 2025, caused more than 130 fatalities and property losses exceeding USD 20 billion. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the NOAA operational flood forecasting pipeline, including Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, National Water Model short-...
A. Baruah, D. Munasinghe, S. Cohen et al.· Natural Hazards and Earth Sy...· 0 citations
Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) often co‐occur with other weather systems, including fronts, low‐pressure systems (LPSs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which can amplify precipitation and flood risk. While extreme rainfall is frequently linked to multiple interacting features, how these systems co‐occur with AR int...
Diya Kamnani, T. O'Brien, Wei-Ming Tsai et al.· Geophysical Research Letters· 0 citations
Extreme precipitation is one of the leading drivers of hydrometeorological hazards and urban flood risk across the United States. However, most previous analyses focus on broad geographic scales, often obscuring the local variability and urban microclimate effects critical for understanding risk in metropolitan areas...
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are key drivers of extreme precipitation, and their future changes indicate major climate risks. Historical variations of ARs in Asia exhibited dynamic suppressions and thermodynamic enhancements under climate change, yet critical gaps remain in understanding the future impacts of these compe...
Ju Liang, M. Collins, Zhi-Hua Pan et al.· Communications Earth & E...· 0 citations
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) produce many of the world's most extreme precipitation events and hydrometeorological hazards. Although artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models have demonstrated skill comparable to or exceeding numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems for large-scale atmospheric variables, t...
Marina Vicens-Miquel, Taylor Mandelbaum, Amy McGovern et al.· 0 citations
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