Paris as a 15-Minute City: An Explainable AI Perspective

Abstract

The 15-minute city promotes access to everyday services within a short walk or bicycle ride, but its relationship with observed mobility remains difficult to quantify. We investigate this relationship in the Paris metropolitan area using mobility trajectories from the NetMob 2025 Data Challenge, enriched with INSEE sociodemographic data and OpenStreetMap points of interest (POIs), yielding approximately 70,000 trip segments after stop-based segmentation and data cleaning. We construct walking- and cycling-based indicators of local service availability and examine their associations with trip duration, transport mode, and short-trip car use. Higher POI availability is associated with less private motorized travel and more active mobility, although this relationship is substantially weaker in the outer agglomeration. Gradient-boosted tree models interpreted with explainable machine-learning methods consistently identify trip purpose, home--work distance, local service availability, vehicle ownership, public-transport subscription, and sociodemographic context as important predictors. For short trips, high POI density is associated with lower car use, while car ownership and driving-licence availability are associated with higher predicted car use; where services are sparse, public-transport subscription is associated with lower predicted car dependence. Finally, explainable AI (XAI) methods are used to examine how feature attributions change under alternative assumed variable orderings. The results are consistent with central assumptions of the 15-minute city while revealing substantial spatial and demographic heterogeneity. They also demonstrate how explainable machine-learning methods can complement accessibility indicators and identify locally relevant hypotheses for urban-mobility policy.