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Open access Jul 2026

Prediction and Generalization Capability of Machine Learning Models for Shield TBM-Induced Settlement

Ground settlement induced by shield tunnel boring machine (TBM) excavation is a major geotechnical concern in urban tunneling because it may affect the safety of adjacent structures and underground infrastructure. In this study, machine learning models were developed to predict the maximum settlement induced by shield TBM excavation using a three-dimensional numerical analysis database comprising 320 simulation cases generated from combinations of tunnel diameter (D), ground elastic modulus (E), face pressure (FP), and backfill pressure (BP). Random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models were developed and compared with an existing regression-based settlement prediction equation. Predictive performance and generalization capability were evaluated using random split and GroupKFold validation techniques. Under random split validation, RF achieved the highest predictive performance, with a coefficient of determination of 0.997 and a root mean square error of 0.438 mm, followed by XGBoost. Both machine learning models outperformed the existing settlement prediction equation. However, model performance decreased substantially under GroupKFold validation, indicating limited generalization capability under unseen D–E grouped conditions. The results demonstrate that the developed machine learning models provide accurate predictions within the range of tunnel–ground conditions represented by the adopted numerical analysis database. The findings highlight the importance of evaluating both predictive performance and generalization capability, particularly when machine learning models developed from numerical analysis databases are applied beyond the conditions represented in the training database.

Ji-seok Yun, Wan-kyu Yoo, Gi-Jun Lee et al. · 0 citations
Open access 2026

Data-Driven Mechanical ROP Prediction: Construction and Validation of Committee Machine Model

With the continuous development of drilling technology, accurately predicting mechanical penetration rates is particularly important for improving operational efficiency and reducing costs. Existing methods often struggle to provide reliable predictions when faced with complex geological conditions and variable drilling environments because they primarily rely on traditional models and fail to adequately consider various influencing factors and their nonlinear relationships. To ad-dress these issues, this paper proposes a mechanical penetration rate prediction model based on committee machines. This model effectively captures the variability characteristics of mechanical penetration rates by integrating multiple expert models while employing wavelet filtering methods to denoise the data to enhance data quality. In the application case, this paper collects relevant drilling parameter data based on a vertical well in a specific block. The evaluation of the model shows that it performs excellently in key indicators such as mean square error, coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and mean absolute error, particularly demonstrating a high predictive capability and stability by explaining 97.19% of data variability. The advantage of the constructed model lies in its strong ensemble learning ability, which not only enhances the prediction accuracy of mechanical penetration rates but also helps to deepen the understanding of the dynamic changes in the drilling process, providing effective support for subsequent drilling optimization and resource development.

Tao Cai, Huai-Yan Qi, Xue-Wu Yang et al. · 0 citations
Jul 2026

Machine Learning Prediction of the Ground Reaction Curve in Sand with the MATLAB GUI Platform

The proposed framework combined a curated database, neural network-based curve prediction, and hyperparameter optimization, providing a robust approach for evaluating the soil arching effect, providing a robust approach for evaluating the soil arching effect.

Cheng-shuang Yin, Liu-mei Wei, Han-lin Wang et al. · 0 citations