Digitalization and Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between supply chain digitalization and firm-level supply chain resilience using the staggered rollout of China’s Supply Chain Innovation and Application Pilot Program as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on panel data for Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2012 to 2023, the difference-in-differences estimates indicate that policy exposure is associated with a statistically significant increase in supply chain resilience. The coefficient remains stable across parallel trends tests, placebo exercises, additional controls, high-dimensional fixed effects, and policy-selection diagnostics. Because pilot assignment followed an evaluation process, rather than randomization, the estimates remain subject to possible selection on unobserved characteristics. Subgroup regressions yield larger positive coefficients for firms in less marketized regions, non-state-owned enterprises, and mature firms. Sobel tests support the financing constraint pathway, whereas the information transparency pathway is only marginally significant. Asset turnover, the operating cycle, and inventory alignment are associated with resilience in the outcome equations, but the corresponding first-stage policy coefficients are not robust in the preferred firm- and year-fixed effect specifications. The findings document a positive quasi-experimental association between supply chain digitalization and resilience, while highlighting the institutional and firm-level conditions that shape the estimated relationship.