The compressive strength of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including material composition, mixture proportion parameters, and curing regime. Conventional empirical methods are therefore insufficient to accurately characterize the highly nonlinear relationships involved. To improve the prediction accuracy of UHPC compressive strength and to achieve mixture proportion optimization that simultaneously considers mechanical performance, economic efficiency, and environmental impact, this study developed random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models based on 810 publicly available UHPC experimental datasets. Model performance was evaluated using R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. To enhance the robustness of model validation, repeated K-fold cross-validation, sensitivity analysis with different random seed splits, and benchmark model comparisons were further introduced. The results indicate that the XGBoost model achieved superior predictive performance on both the test set and robustness validation, with test-set R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values of 0.9604, 7.77, 5.58, and 4.80, respectively. The model was further interpreted using SHAP, PDP, and ICE methods, and the results revealed that curing age, fiber content, silica fume content, and water-to-binder ratio were important variables affecting the compressive strength of UHPC. Furthermore, XGBoost was used as a surrogate model and coupled with NSGA-II and TOPSIS methods for multi-objective optimization. Under the constraints of compressive strength, water-to-binder ratio, superplasticizer-to-binder ratio, and absolute volume, a computationally recommended UHPC mixture proportion balancing strength, cost, and carbon emissions was obtained. This study provides a reproducible machine-learning-assisted approach for UHPC compressive strength prediction and low-carbon, cost-effective mixture proportion design.
Ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) exhibits exceptional mechanical properties and durability. However, its compressive strength is highly dependent on complex mix design parameters. While traditional experimental techniques and regression-based models are commonly used to evaluate UHPC compressive strength, machine learning approaches offer an efficient alternative for capturing complex nonlinear relationships. This study develops a machine learning–based framework to predict the compressive strength of UHPC and compares the predictive performance of five advanced algorithms: Extremely Randomized Trees (ER), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), CatBoost, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). A comprehensive experimental database was utilized for training and validation purposes. Among the evaluated models, CatBoost achieved the best predictive performance, with a coefficient of determination (R²) exceeding 0.90, a root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 4.5 MPa, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of approximately 3.6 MPa. However, subgroup residual analysis showed that the prediction reliability was not uniform across the full strength range. In particular, mixtures with compressive strength ≥180 MPa exhibited larger errors and systematic underprediction, mainly due to the limited number of ultra-high-strength samples in the compiled database. Therefore, the model is more reliable within well-represented strength ranges, while predictions in the ultra-high-strength region should be interpreted with caution. SHAP-based analysis, feature dependency analysis, and both Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) were employed. These explainable AI techniques identified key variables and quantified their contributions to the compressive strength of UHPC. The findings demonstrate that interpretable machine learning can support preliminary UHPC mixture assessment by combining predictive performance with physically meaningful insights.
Nga T. T. Nguyen, Tuan Anh Nguyen, Tu Tuan Nguyen et al.· PLoS ONE· 0 citations
Ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) offers exceptional mechanical and durability properties but often relies on quartz powder, raising sustainability and occupational health concerns. This study introduces an integrated experimental-computational framework for predicting the compressive strength of UHPC and developing quartz-free mixtures. Experimentally, the effects of mixing sequence, sand characteristics, superplasticizer chemistry, and curing regime were investigated, leading to a quartz-free UHPC achieving 136 MPa at 28 days under heat-curing. A dataset of 550 UHPC compressive strength records was compiled, incorporating quantitative mix proportions and categorical variables (cement type, superplasticizer base, fiber type, and specimen geometry). Sixty-three machine learning models from tree-based, boosting, and support vector machine families were optimized using seven meta-heuristic algorithms. The Particle Swarm Optimization-tuned XGBoost model achieved the highest prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.897, RMSE = 7.63 MPa), followed by the Differential Evolution-optimized Random Forest (R2 = 0.867, RMSE = 8.70 MPa). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified curing age as the most influential predictor after optimization. The proposed framework enables accurate and interpretable UHPC strength prediction and supports the design of safer and more sustainable quartz-free UHPC with reduced experimental effort.
Mohamed Ayman, Amr Elnemr· Scientific Reports· 0 citations
Ultrahigh-performance concrete (UHPC) offers superior mechanical properties and durability but is constrained by high density, cost, and environmental impact due to its cement-intensive composition. This study presents a machine learning (ML)–driven multiobjective optimization framework for UHPC mix design, integrating waste aggregates, supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs), and performance-enhancing components to balance strength and sustainability. A robust data set combining 694 literature-derived and 87 experimental data points underpins the framework. Unsupervised anomaly detection (isolation forest) is employed to refine data quality, while ML techniques identify key parameters influencing UHPC properties. Predictive models, including artificial neural networks, random forests, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM), are trained on full and reduced feature sets to ensure accuracy and generalizability. LightGBM, showing the best predictive performance, is embedded into single-objective and multiobjective optimization processes. Single-objective optimization achieves rapid and accurate convergence for individual performance targets. Multiobjective optimization yields diverse Pareto-optimal solutions, exposing trade-offs among strength, cost, and embodied carbon. Experimental validation confirms that optimized mixes improve performance while reducing environmental footprint. Two novel UHPC mixes were experimentally validated: (1) an SCM-based formulation that reduces clinker use while maintaining structural integrity; and (2) a UHPC mix incorporating waste glass aggregates, enhancing circularity and lowering carbon emissions. This study provides a scalable, data-driven approach to ecoefficient UHPC design, enabling intelligent, application-ready solutions that align with construction performance demands and global sustainability goals.
Yuhui Lyu, Fan Zheng, Haodong Ji et al.· Journal of materials in civi...· 0 citations
A comparative framework evaluating nine regression algorithms using the UCI Concrete Compressive Strength dataset, jointly integrating correlation-corrected statistical validation, multi-model Bayesian optimization, and domain-informed feature engineering with SHAP interpretation, rarely combined in prior concrete-strength studies.
Musthafa 'Abduh Fakhruddin, Sri Winarno, Acun Kardianawati· IDEALIS : InDonEsiA journaL...· 0 citations
Accurate prediction of the mechanical strength of Basalt Fiber Reinforced Concrete (BFRC) is critical for structural design, safety assessment, and the advancement of sustainable infrastructure in civil engineering. Traditional prediction methods often fail to capture the nonlinear relationships between BFRC mix proportions and resulting strength characteristics, leading to unreliable estimations. To address this limitation, this study proposes the Optimized Moment Balanced Machine (OMBM), an advanced machine learning model developed to improve the predictive accuracy of BFRC strength parameters. The model was trained and evaluated using key input features, including cement content, silica fume, fly ash, superplasticizer, water, aggregate composition, and fiber property parameters. The performance of the OMBM was benchmarked against four established machine learning models, such as Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Linear Regression (LR). Results from ten-fold cross-validation show that OMBM consistently outperforms the comparison models across five evaluation metrics. It achieved the lowest RMSE (2.411), MAE (1.788), and MAPE (4.08%), along with the highest values for correlation coefficient (R = 0.978), and coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.956). Furthermore, the OMBM achieved a Reference Index (RI) score of 1.000, which confirms its position as the leading predictive model within this comparative framework. These results confirm the robustness and reliability of the proposed OMBM model, making it a highly effective tool for accurate strength prediction of BFRC. This approach offers significant potential for the advancement of sustainable infrastructure by enabling more accurate and efficient use of concrete materials.
R. R. Khasani, Ferry Hermawan, Yuliana Usman· IOP Conference Series: Earth...· 0 citations
Basalt fiber-reinforced concrete (BFRC), reinforced with chopped basalt fibers having lengths ranging from 12 to 30 mm and diameters ranging from 0.013 to 0.020 mm, is a sustainable construction material with enhanced strength and durability; however, its complex nonlinear behavior makes accurate prediction and optimal mix design challenging. This study proposes an integrated machine learning framework combining evolutionary optimization, multi-objective optimization, and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) for BFRC strength prediction and mix design optimization. The proposed framework further incorporates a graphical user interface (GUI) deployment to enhance practical usability and support engineering decision-making. Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Regressor, and XGBoost models were optimized using Genetic Algorithms, Particle Swarm Optimization, and Differential Evolution, while NSGA-II was employed to identify optimal trade-offs between compressive strength and splitting tensile strength. SHAP analysis was applied to interpret the influence of key mix parameters on strength prediction. The optimized models achieved high prediction accuracy, with R2 values of 0.88 for compressive strength and 0.95 for splitting tensile strength, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The developed GUI provides a practical decision-support tool for sustainable and performance-oriented BFRC mix design.
Abdullah Al Mamun, M. Aburizaiza, W. Sindi et al.· Materials· 0 citations