Trend Analysis and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change in General Santos City

Abstract

This study analyzed land use and land cover (LULC) changes in General Santos City and predicted possible future LULC patterns for 2043 and 2063. It quantified changes in six LULC classes from 2003 to 2063 using a quantitative geospatial modeling approach. Landsat Imagery was the primary dataset, while validation points from historical imagery and spatial drivers, including aspect, elevation, slope, and distance to roads and rivers, were incorporated into the model. LULC maps were generated through supervised classification and validated through accuracy assessment before being used in the CA-ANN simulation. The results showed acceptable performance, with overall accuracies above 70%. Model validation also produced substantial agreement, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.67038. The results showed significant changes in LULC. Barren/Open Land decreased substantially from 5,000.20 hectares in 2003 to 1,125.98 hectares in 2023. Under a business-as-usual scenario, Built-Up areas were projected to increase from 6,045.79 hectares in 2023 to 10,075.55 hectares in 2063, while Grassland/Shrubland was projected to decline by 6,727.94 hectares. These findings emphasized continued urban expansion and conversion of transitional LULC classification into more intensive uses. The study provided spatial evidence to support sustainable urban development, land use planning, and policy formulation in General Santos City.