BioTrade , Frontier Technology Readiness, and the Load Capacity Curve: Sustainable Development Dynamics in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract

This study investigates the nonlinear dynamics among income, ecological sustainability, and sustainable development in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) within the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) framework, incorporating BioTrade and frontier technology readiness as novel structural determinants. The analysis employs the load capacity factor (LCF) as a biocapacity‐adjusted measure of ecological balance and the Sustainable Development Index (SDI) as a multidimensional proxy for progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. Using annual data for 18 SSA countries from 2010 to 2022, the study applies second‐generation panel econometric techniques, Half‐Panel Jackknife (HPJ) causality approach, and the Bias‐Corrected Method of Moments (BCMM) estimator. The BCMM results provide evidence supporting the validity of the LCC hypothesis, revealing a U‐shaped relationship between income and both LCF and SDI. Economic growth initially weakens ecological balance, but beyond a critical turning point, composition and technique effects outweigh scale effects, leading to sustainability improvements. Frontier technology readiness has a positive impact on both ecological sustainability and SDI, highlighting the importance of innovation capacity and R&D preparedness in facilitating green structural transformation. BioTrade also contributes positively, providing the evidence that biodiversity‐based trade aligned with sustainability standards enhances ecological balance while supporting broader development objectives. In contrast, urbanization negatively affects both LCF and SDI. The HPJ causality results further confirm the robustness of these findings. Overall, the findings suggest that SSA policymakers should design an integrated sustainability strategy grounded in the LCC framework by simultaneously scaling frontier technology readiness through R&D‐oriented innovation systems and expanding BioTrade under strict ecological standards.