Context-induced tail risks concealed by aggregate accuracy are revealed, motivating per-example reliability evaluation of language models.
Abstract
As large language models (LLMs) grow more capable, they are increasingly deployed in context-rich settings where task inputs are often accompanied by long, partially irrelevant context. In a controlled setting, we find that state-of-the-art models often appear robust to task-irrelevant context at the aggregate level: prepending it to benchmark questions causes little change in overall accuracy. This aggregate stability, however, masks significant per-example instability. Even semantically meaningless pseudo-words, formed by randomly combining characters, can markedly shift model predictions on a small fraction of examples, degrading performance on some while improving it on others. This two-sided effect holds consistently across a wide range of models and datasets, yet the affected examples are largely model-specific. We further show that this instability is modulated by context type, context length, test-time compute, and model development stage. Together, our findings reveal context-induced tail risks concealed by aggregate accuracy, motivating per-example reliability evaluation of language models.
Large language models are increasingly trained and deployed with long contexts that span documents, code repositories, and interaction histories. This scaling reflects the implicit assumption that training on longer contexts will only help the model by exposing it to richer evidence. We challenge this view by studying how the context window shapes a model's mode of learning, shifting it between parametric internalization and contextualization. We propose the Information Abundance Paradox, which hypothesizes that abundant relevant information in the training context can reduce the incentive to encode that information parametrically, thereby increasing reliance on context. In pretraining with long documents, increasing the context window improves language modeling, natural language understanding, and closed-book MCQA only up to an intermediate optimum, after which performance consistently declines. In supervised fine-tuning, more task-relevant train-time context improves performance with supporting context, but reduces robustness when context is absent or misleading at test time. Our analysis suggests that this behavior arises when longer context provides a lower complexity solution. Mechanistically, training with informative context shifts gradient pressure from feed-forward networks, often linked to parametric knowledge, toward attention modules, and causal interventions show that this shift increases reliance on context during inference. Overall, these findings support the Information Abundance Paradox and suggest that scaling toward near-infinite context is not simply a matter of supplying more data, even when high-quality long-context data is abundant.
Arda Uzunouglu, Benjamin Van Durme, Daniel Khashabi· 2 citations
As large language models (LLMs) continue to advance in complex reasoning tasks, they have learned to heavily prioritize explicit conditions provided in the input. However, in everyday commonsense reasoning, this mechanism exposes a critical vulnerability which we term Salience Bias: models become easily hijacked by useless explicit distractors (e.g., numerical values), leading them to ignore the implicit physical or commonsense prerequisites of a task. A critical open question is whether this failure reflects a genuine gap in commonsense knowledge or merely its suppression under misleading task framing. To investigate this, we construct the SaliTrap Benchmark, a high-quality dataset across four trap dimensions. Evaluating 12 state-of-the-art LLMs, we find that all mainstream models suffer significantly from salience bias, with severity scaling with distractor density and detecting the trap often decoupled from actually avoiding it. Crucially, by re-eliciting the same models with the task framing stripped away, we show that this is overwhelmingly a failure of \textbf{knowledge suppression rather than knowledge absence}: a context-free knowledge probe alone recovers over 90\% of sycophantic-compliance failures, revealing that the requisite commonsense is intrinsically present but actively crowded out by salient distractors that lure the model into over-compliant, unnecessary computation. Building on this diagnosis, we further show that lightweight, inference-time prompting alone substantially closes the gap without any retraining. Our findings relocate the bottleneck of commonsense reasoning failures from model competence to elicitation, and we release SaliTrap as a testbed for this blind spot. The codes are available at https://github.com/Wuzheng02/SaliTrap.
Zheng Wu, Chenhao Xue, Shijie Zheng et al.· 0 citations
This work proposes answer instability, defined as the variability of a model’s final answer across repeated stochastic generations of the same prompt, as a simple, label-free, and black-box uncertainty signal, and demonstrates its utility for selective prediction and targeted repair, improving reliability without access to internal probabilities or additional training.
J. M. Araña, Kristine Ann M. Carandang, Ethan Robert A. Casin et al.· Annual Meeting of the Associ...· 0 citations
A standard claim in the literature on retrieval-augmented and memory-augmented language models is that shorter context is better when the relevant information is preserved. We test this claim by running every sample of two long-context benchmarks -- BABILong and GraphWalks (BFS) -- at four context-retention fractions (100%, 75%, 50%, 25%) under two truncation protocols. The first is the naive protocol implicitly used in much prior work: drop content from the middle of the prompt. The second is distractor-aware: identify the task-relevant content for each sample and drop only the rest. We evaluate three sizes of the Claude family (Haiku 4.5, Sonnet 4.6, Opus 4.7) and, to test cross-provider generality, GPT-5.5 from a different provider; we apply the same protocol to two further benchmarks (MRCR v2, Oolong). Under naive truncation, score collapses monotonically (paired Wilcoxon, Holm-corrected p_adj<0.05 in all eight BABILong and GraphWalks cells). Under the distractor-aware protocol -- which preserves the signal by construction -- performance is preserved or improves: the two smaller Claude models show statistically significant gains on BABILong, while the larger models (Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5) sit at their full-context ceiling. The naive collapse and its distractor-aware recovery replicate on GPT-5.5, ruling out a single-provider artifact. The mechanism is direct: under the naive protocol the answer-bearing content survives in fewer than 1% of samples at 25% retention; under the distractor-aware protocol it is preserved by construction. The naive protocol is therefore not a measurement of context-window effects; it is a measurement of how often middle-removal happens to spare the answer. We conclude that future studies of context-length effects must specify how they distinguish signal from distractor, or they are at best ambiguous between two opposite hypotheses.
Narrow fine-tuning on small, domain-specific datasets can produce broad and surprising changes in model behavior-a phenomenon called weird generalization (WG). Yet, it remains unclear what features of the fine-tuning data are necessary for WG to arise. Here, we address this question by investigating a range of plausibly relevant features, including dataset size, composition, language, presentation style, and novelty relative to a model's parametric knowledge. Further, since WG evaluations rely on small question sets that assess the extent of the generalization, we also analyze how sensitive this measurement is to the set of questions used. Experiments with three open-weight models on four datasets show that the degree of WG (1) depends heavily on dataset composition and language (more than on size); (2) is greater for data familiar from pretraining than for novel data; and (3) is sensitive to the set of evaluation questions used. Collectively, these results indicate that WG is a product of quite fragile properties of both training and evaluation data. As such, we argue that WG is more plausible as an adversarial threat-requiring careful data engineering-rather than as a significant hazard inherent to routine fine-tuning.
We propose that a model's uncertainty about a token is reflected not only in the breadth of its output distribution but also in whether a confident prediction is \emph{fragile} under perturbation of its attention pathways. We instantiate this as ASMI (Attention-Subnetwork Mutual Information), a training-free estimator that masks attention heads and measures the BALD mutual information among the resulting subnetworks, with a semantic-agreement kernel to discount surface-form disagreement. The signal is not a restatement of output confidence: on grounded QA an out-of-fold test shows it adds error-predictive information beyond single-pass confidence and entropy, concentrated in \emph{confident-but-fragile} predictions, where acting on it roughly halves the retained error of a confidence filter. The distinctness is regime-graded, so ASMI predicts its own domain of applicability, strong where answers are routed through provided context and bounded by design where they are recalled from parametric knowledge. Sem-ASMI reads the signal from a single greedy response, without the stochastic generations the strongest baselines require, and ties or beats Semantic Entropy on ten of the twelve grounded benchmark-backbone settings. Across the same twelve settings, the best ASMI variant, typically the adaptive one reusing the ten samples already drawn for the baselines, ties or leads the strongest baseline in eight, significantly in three under a paired test. On parametric QA all variants revert to or below the zero-cost MSP baseline, exactly as predicted, and the estimates are near-deterministic across reruns. A head-level analysis shows that what tracks this boundary is not the presence of head-level fragility but whether that fragility couples to errors.
Minsoo Kim, Sungyoung Ji, Kisung Moon et al.· 0 citations