Integrating Machine Learning and AHP for Data-Driven Asset Renewal Prioritization in Power Distribution Systems

Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated framework for predictive asset management in electric power distribution systems by combining machine learning with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Distinct utility datasets were used according to the characteristics of each prediction task. Annual preventive- and corrective-maintenance records, including maintenance cost and frequency, covered the period from 2016 to 2023, whereas the SAIDI and SAIFI annual time series covered the period from 2014 to 2023. Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation was based on static asset-level records from the entire available equipment stock and therefore was not associated with a single time-series interval. Multiple machine learning algorithms were evaluated independently for each Type of Utility Component (TUC), and the best-performing models were selected according to their validation errors. The resulting predictions were incorporated into a two-level AHP hierarchy that integrates technical, economic, operational, and regulatory criteria for portfolio-level asset-renewal prioritization. For RUL estimation, the selected TUC-specific models reduced the mean MAE from 11.33 years for the historical-mean baseline to 2.70 years, corresponding to an absolute improvement of 8.63 years and a relative reduction of 76.15%. The resulting priority ranking was evaluated retrospectively using moving-average, cumulative-gain, and lift analyses. The top 20% of ranked assets captured 29.61% of the observed corrective-maintenance occurrences, corresponding to a lift of 1.4806 relative to random selection. The cumulative-gain curve yielded an area under the curve of 0.6337 and a ranking Gini coefficient of 0.2674, indicating moderate positive discrimination across the asset portfolio. These results show that the proposed ML–AHP framework can support the allocation of inspection, engineering-assessment, and renewal resources toward assets with comparatively greater maintenance demand and operational relevance. The framework provides a structured, data-driven decision-support approach for utility asset-renewal planning, while prospective field implementation remains necessary to quantify reductions in failures, corrective maintenance, continuity penalties, and total expenditure.