Beyond Size: What Drives Financial Performance in Tier II and Tier III Commercial Banks in Kenya

Abstract

The financial performance of commercial banks remains a subject of considerable interest in both academic and policy circles, particularly in emerging markets where the banking sector constitutes a critical pillar of economic intermediation. This study examines the determinants of financial performance among Tier II and Tier III commercial banks in Kenya, using data extracted from audited financial statements for the fiscal year ending December 2025. The study employs Return on Assets (ROA) as the dependent variable and considers five bank specific explanatory variables: the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio, Loan to Deposit ratio, Capital Adequacy ratio, Net Interest Income to Assets ratio and Operating Income to Assets ratio. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis on a sample of 28 banks, the study finds that the model explains approximately 70.83% of the variation in ROA (R² = 0.7083; Adj. R² = 0.6419), which is statistically significant at the 1% level (F (5, 22) = 10.68; p < .0001). The NPL ratio exerts a significant negative effect on performance (β = −0.0408; p = 0.006), while capital adequacy (β = 0.0913; p = 0.026) and operating income efficiency (β = 0.4214; p = 0.012) are significant positive drivers of ROA. The Loan to Deposit ratio and Net Interest Income ratio do not yield statistically significant effects. Diagnostic tests confirm the absence of multicollinearity (Mean VIF = 1.74), homoskedasticity (Breusch-Pagan p = 0.3153) and correct model specification (Ramsey RESET p = 0.8894). The findings suggest that beyond bank size, credit quality management, capital strength and income diversification are the primary levers of financial performance in Kenya's mid-tier banking segment.    Keywords:       Financial performance, ROA, Tier II and III banks, NPL ratio, capital adequacy, OLS regression.