Deep Learning-Based Statistical Downscaling of Sea Surface Temperature Using a Residual Corrective Neural Network

Abstract

The large-scale oceanic and atmospheric forecasts provided by global climate models typically lack sufficient resolution to accurately capture the response of the coastal ocean to atmospheric forcing and coastal circulation that drive fine-scale SST variability. Dynamical downscaling is computationally prohibitive, when applied to extensive coastlines, predictive ensembles, or long time periods. Therefore, this work presents a statistical downscaling of sea surface temperature (SST) from the seasonal coupled ocean-atmosphere forecast system (ACCESS-S2) using machine learning techniques. This study proposes a novel deep learning framework that uses a U-Net to generate an initial high-resolution SST estimate, which is subsequently refined using a residual corrective approach. The target SST fields are derived from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). This two step approach called Residual Corrective Neural Network (RCNN) progressively refines initial U-Net predictions by incorporating dynamically scaled residuals at each step, enabling accurate capture of broad patterns and fine-grained features such as eddies and fronts. We also introduce a custom loss-assisted RCNN variant to improve performance during extreme events, which may be absent from training data due to climate-driven shifts in SST extremes. The framework efficiently downscales SST along the west coast of Australia. A 2011 marine heatwave case study shows that the RCNN improves ACCESS-S2 SST predictions by increasing horizontal resolution from 25 km to 2 km, enabling identification of fine-scale anomalies unresolved in the ACCESS-S2 dataset. This balance between computational efficiency and accuracy supports applications in coastal impact assessment and marine ecosystem studies.