Business Sustainability in Nigeria Under the Tinubu Administration: An Evaluation of Policy Reforms, Structural Pressures, And Pathways to Enterprise Resilience (2023–2026)

Abstract

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration, which took office on 29 May 2023, has undertaken by far the boldest Nigerian economic reform programme of recent memory. The most important parts of the programme were removal of petrol subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market, passing of the Electricity Act 2023, and consolidation of the government revenue and expenditure through four new tax laws in 2025. While the reform agenda has its proponents who see it as necessary for correction of long-term fiscal and monetary errors, it has led to a severe increase in the cost of living which has tested the survival of Nigerian businesses, especially the MSMEs that make up about 48 percent of the GDP and employ more than 84 percent of the labour force. This paper looks at how the Tinubu reform package will affect business continuance on economic, social, and environmental bases, primarily by analysing empirical literature, Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics official data, and the World Bank's 2025 Nigeria Country Private Sector Diagnostic. The paper believes that even though the reforms are structurally correct and remove the pre existing distortions that were creating problems for private sector viability, lack of coordinated transitional safety nets, insecurity issue continuing, and state-level implementation being very scattered are the main factors holding sustainability results back. The article ends with the suggestion that combining macroeconomic stabilisation with direct SME protection, opportunities creation for renewable energy transition, and intentions of stronger ESG disclosure regimes should be the integrated framework to be adopted.