Near Real-Time Forest Loss Detection in the Brazilian Amazon Using Bayesian Fusion of Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Time Series

Abstract

Abstract. Timely and accurate detection of deforestation is essential for managing tropical forests, yet individual Earth observation sensors have inherent limitations. Multispectral imagery offers detailed spectral information on vegetation properties but is frequently hindered by cloud cover, while Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery provides insights on vegetation structure independent of weather conditions but is sensitive to moisture variability and residual vegetation post-clearing. The complementary nature of these data has motivated multi-source fusion approaches, though most existing methods rely on offline processing or decision-level integration, limiting their real-time applicability. This study generalizes a Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection (BOCD) framework based on the recursive estimation of the number of acquisitions since the last change to asynchronous, irregularly sampled Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 multispectral time series. A dynamically weighted fusion mechanism is implemented, in which each sensor’s relevance reduces with increasing time since its last observation, according to a physical decay model. The resulting method, named ms-BOCD, enables interpretable, and Near Real-Time (NRT) detection of forest loss. The ms-BOCD method is validated using MapBiomas Alerta reference data spanning deforestation polygons ranging from 0.1 to 50 hectares in the Brazilian Amazon. Compared to V H-BOCD (BOCD using Sentinel-1 cross-polarization only) and the operational RADD and TropiSCO systems, ms-BOCD achieves a ∼ 25% improvement in detection performance and maintains 13% fewer false alarms than Global Forest Watch (GFW), a platform that aggregates multiple independent deforestation alert products. Overall, these results demonstrate the strong potential of multi-source Bayesian fusion for operational tropical forest monitoring.