Aug 2026· IMF Working Papers· Vol 2026, pp. 1· 0 citations
Abstract
This paper analyzes the credit-growth nexus by shifting the focus from aggregate leverage and credit stocks to new credit flows. Using quarterly data for 12 euro area countries over 2007–24, covering 96 percent of euro area GDP, the analysis shows a robust empirical association between newly granted bank credit and private final domestic demand (PFDD), a close proxy for GDP. A 10 percent increase in new private credit is associated with about 0.5–0.7 percentage points growth in PFDD. In contrast, specifications based on credit stocks or leverage produce unstable or counterintuitive estimates, reflecting measurement biases related to debt repayments and denominator effects. Nothwithstanding the importance of debt levels and leverage for financial stability and through debt service for the economy, the findings suggest that new credit flows appear to provide a more empirically reliable proxy for the macroeconomic role of bank lending.
Identifying credit supply shocks separately from demand shocks remains a central challenge in the empirical credit-channel literature, particularly in emerging economies. We use the Brazilian Central Bank's Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey (PTC), launched in 2011, which records the lending standards reported by finan...
Jose Antonio dos Santos Rocha, Marcos Roberto Vasconcelos· Journal of Economic Analysis· 0 citations
This study examines whether the accumulated stock of private credit provides early-warning information for subsequent deterioration in banking-sector asset quality. It combines annual Passport banking indicators with World Development Indicators for 58 countries over 2010–2024; the preferred sample contains 746 country...
Marco Antonio Ledesma Munive, Alejandro Anibal Aguirre-Rojas, Graciela Soledad Verastegui Velasquez et al.· Journal of Risk and Financia...· 0 citations
The study examines the relationship between financial dollarization and macroeconomic development in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Most previous studies have examined the drivers of dollarization, inflation trends, exchange-rate arrangements, and financial stability outcomes. Far less attention has...
A. Sembekov, A. Ayulov, Rakymzhan K. Yelshibayev et al.· Frontiers in Political Scien...· 0 citations
This study investigates the determinants of credit growth in Western Balkan countries over the period 2011–2023, assessing whether lending dynamics are driven by macroeconomic fundamentals or financial sector conditions. The analysis focuses on key variables, including GDP growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), infla...
Erleta Halimi, Katalin Czakó, Arben Sahiti et al.· Emerging Science Journal· 0 citations
We revisit the inverted‐U relationship between finance and growth using data for 40 countries from 1969 to 2019. Our estimates of the tipping point—the level of credit‐to‐GDP above which additional credit becomes a drag on growth—are substantially lower than those we reported in the aftermath of the global financial...
S. Cecchetti, Enisse Kharroubi· Manchester School· 0 citations
This paper examines how economic downturns and currency movements affect the quality of bank loans in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, using annual data for 14 national banking systems over 2008–2023. We estimate a bias-corrected dynamic fixed-effects model, verify inference with Driscoll–Kraay, cluster-robus...
Ivana Miklošević, Andreja Todorović, Andrija Popović· Journal of Risk and Financia...· 0 citations
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