Analyzing a large corpus of publicly released post-training trajectories, it is found that across different tasks, the agent's training strategy is locked in at the very beginning, and the entire remaining budget is spent on local adjustments within the selected strategy.
Abstract
Large language model (LLM) agents can now post-train an LLM end-to-end. They can write code, launch training, evaluate checkpoints, and improve downstream performance, raising the prospect of AI-for-AI. We argue that this picture conflates two distinct capabilities: execution-level capability, iterating within a selected training strategy; and strategy-level capability, revising the high-level judgment as experimental evidence accumulates. Analyzing a large corpus of publicly released post-training trajectories, we find that across different tasks, the agent's training strategy is locked in at the very beginning, and the entire remaining budget is spent on local adjustments within the selected strategy. We then examine three natural explanations--missing experience, missing guidance, and insufficient reasoning--with escalating interventions. Extensive experiments show that (1) an experience-driven scaffold improves execution across the board (+12.6 points on GSM8K and +40.8 on HumanEval) but leaves the strategy static; (2) human guidance effectively redirects the initial strategy, yet the agent falls back into local adjustment loops once training starts; and (3) additional inference compute pays off on easier tasks but yields almost no gain on the hardest one. In conclusion, what agents lack is neither experience, guidance, nor reasoning compute, but a mechanism for spontaneously reevaluating their strategy during execution.
Large language models write correct code for isolated problems but remain far weaker at autonomous machine-learning development, where an agent must revise data pipelines, models, and validation over hours of feedback, and on most competitions still finishes below strong human competitors. Outcome-based benchmarks record this gap but not its cause, because they grade the final submission and discard the development process behind it. We introduce TraceML, which pairs human and agent work on the same competitions under one version-level schema: 4,465 human Kaggle trajectories across 134 competitions, seven of which are also worked by two agent scaffolds, giving 430 paired human and 207 agent trajectories. Every code version carries its score, its timestamp, and labels for the action taken, its intent, the edit size, and the score effect. Read this way, the gap becomes concrete. Experts alternate data work, validation, model changes, and ensembling, and return to approaches they had set aside. Each agent scaffold instead collapses into a narrow loop: Codex spends its steps re-weighting ensembles and tuning submissions, MLEvolve mutates its model in place, and neither pivots at the human rate nor reopens abandoned work. A short planning prompt distilled from human practice moves the behaviors it names toward the human profile and lifts scores, but the effort profile stays agent-shaped: instruction closes only the part of the gap that reduces to instructions. We release the corpus, the schema, the labelers, and the extraction pipeline at https://huggingface.co/datasets/jerryyan/TraceML.
Large language model (LLM) agents often waste inference compute by continuing multi-step trajectories that are already doomed to fail. We study early failure prediction and inference-time early stopping for LLM agents using hidden-state probes. Lightweight linear probes on internal activations predict eventual task failure from the first interaction round, substantially earlier than agent-monitoring methods based only on observable behavior. We turn this signal into a recall-controlled abort cascade for reducing LLM agent inference costs. The cascade applies a distribution-free calibrated failure detector at each early interaction round and jointly optimizes per-round recall budgets. This design ensures that eventually successful episodes survive all early-stopping gates at a user-specified global recall rate. After selection, the cascade is frozen and certified on independent data, providing an exact post-selection recall guarantee. We evaluate the method on TextCraft and WebShop with Qwen-2.5-7B, Llama-3.2-3B, and Qwen3-1.7B. The proposed LLM agent early-stopping cascade outperforms the best single-gate baseline in every model-environment pair, saving 1.5-8.8 times more compute at a 90% recall target. Achieved recall remains within one standard deviation of its target in all 24 configurations. The strongest settings reduce generated tokens by 60.2% on TextCraft and 54.9% on WebShop at 90% recall, while retaining savings of 45.0% and 41.5% at 95% recall. Behavior-only monitoring is consistently weaker, and adding behavioral features to hidden-state probes provides no further gain. We also characterize the sample complexity required to certify high-recall early-stopping policies. The code will be released soon.
Kai Ruan, Zihe Huang, Ziqi Zhou et al.· 1 citation
Large language models offer broad capabilities, but adapting them to evolving domains, tools, and requirements often entails repeated post-training. Autonomous systems automate parts of this process by proposing updates, training candidates, and using evaluation feedback to select subsequent proposals. As evidence accumulates, a central problem emerges: which past update evidence remains actionable after subsequent training has changed the parent model? An update's effect depends on its parent, data, and training stage. Treating past success as context-free permission can waste compute. If the resulting child is promoted, it can also degrade the subsequent training trajectory. We formulate this problem as conditional experience transfer and introduce Boundary-Calibrated Intervention Transfer (BCIT), a method that authorizes experience reuse before weight-changing training. BCIT binds an observed effect to its source context, checks applicability conditions, vetoes candidates with named hard conflicts, and obtains current-state evidence through a bounded training trial when needed. Fully trained candidates still face a shared adoption rule, and only observed events extend memory. On one 4B model adapted across finance reasoning, text-to-SQL, and function calling, candidate updates exhibit heterogeneous target and retention effects across the evaluated contexts. Under matched candidates, evidence, and compute, BCIT authorizes fewer harmful updates and attains higher equal-budget final-model quality than the evaluated alternatives. These results support treating experience authorization as a distinct problem in autonomous post-training.
Ting Li, Wenfeng Feng, Weiqing Li et al.· 0 citations
Reinforcement-learning training of reasoning LLMs (e.g., GRPO) is expensive and requires a controllable environment, committing every contribution to a full training pipeline. We present EvoResearcher, a training-free, inference-time protocol that adds cost-bounded self-reflection to a single frozen LLM backbone. The protocol iterates generate ->self-critique ->revise until a maximum depth D is reached or the critique returns the CONFIRMED sentinel, an implicit early stop that lets the backbone self-verify its answer under a strict compute budget. Four self-reflective meta-reward components (correctness, efficiency, reflection depth, tool-call diversity) act as design principles instantiated as prompt-level mechanisms, so their benefits accrue with zero gradient updates. We validate the protocol on Big-Bench Hard (100 questions) and establish cross-domain behavior on GSM8K (500) and MATH (500) on the same frozen backbone, with cross-model replication on Qwen2.5-72B. All experiments use pure-reasoning benchmarks; the tool-call diversity component is validated in prompt-level form, and the environment-level and multi-agent extensions are design blueprints left to future work. On clean BBH the protocol does not raise accuracy beyond the 95% Wilson interval; its value is cost-bounded self-verification, with the CONFIRMED early stop terminating 82-88% of items at equal accuracy (about 2.1 generations per question).
Recent work on distillation transfers the capabilities of large models to smaller ones often by updating the latter's parameters, through teacher forcing, on-policy distillation, and related training-time methods. In this paper, we ask whether such transfer can instead occur at test time. We study strong-to-weak scaffolding: whether a stronger builder model can construct inference-time harnesses that help a weaker target model solve tasks more reliably without any parameter updates. Using four representative Theory-of-Mind benchmarks, each builder model uses 5% of the data as a validation set to iteratively refine its harness over multiple rounds, after which the finalized harness is evaluated on the full test set. Empirically, this form of test-time capability transfer is highly effective, nearly doubling average target-model performance from 0.49 to 0.91. Our analysis shows that the gains come primarily from offloading unstable model reasoning into deterministic code, benchmark-specific routing, and strict answer-format enforcement, rather than from encouraging the target model to reason more extensively or sample more broadly. We further find that builder-model reasoning effort improves harness quality monotonically, platform effects are modest relative to the builder model's own capability, and weaker target models receive the largest gains. These results suggest that inference-time harness design is an important complement to conventional training-time distillation, enabling strong models to transfer cognitive structure to weaker models without retraining.
Cheng Qian, Wenting Zhao, Liangwei Yang et al.· 1 citation
This project explores the Countdown arithmetic reasoning task: given a set of numbers, produce an arithmetic expression that evaluates to a target value on the Qwen 2.5-0.5B base model and proposes two complementary extensions targeting these failure modes.
R. Kaushik, R. Goyal· 0 citations
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