Projected excess mortality from PM2.5 exposure in Europe under future climate and sociodemographic pathways

Abstract

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major human health risk factor. Despite significant efforts to reduce air pollution in Europe the aging population, urbanization, and climate change, demand an assessment of potential impacts of future pollution trends. The interactions of climate change and PM2.5 pollution, and their effects on adverse health outcomes require a comprehensive approach to effectively address these environmental and public health challenges and link them with future scenarios. In this study, we use three shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to examine potential changes in societal, demographic, and economic trends over the century in combination with three future radiative forcing trajectories. We use three scenarios: the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We examine the consequences of these pathways on population exposure to PM2.5 in the coming decades, focusing on the years 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2100. The study evaluates excess mortality across various health outcomes, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, using novel relative risk functions and public health data. We find that air pollution in Europe will continue to decline over the coming decades across all scenarios. The projected excess mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure varies by region, future pathway, and period, and is mainly driven by the projected demographic changes of each scenario. After the mid-century, excess mortality will almost stabilize under the SS1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 pathways and increase under SSP5-8.5. Population aging and urbanization will amplify vulnerability, particularly in densely populated areas, highlighting the need to protect the elderly. We project that by 2100, excess mortality in Europe will be 199 (56–561), 323 (98–719), 808 (341–1489) thousands per year according to SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Our findings suggest that current or additional air pollution control measures will offset the excess mortality burden in Europe only under the SSP1-2.6 or SSP2-4.5 pathways.