From Hegemony to Coalition: The ANC’s Decline and the Era of Power-Sharing in South Africa
Abstract
. The 2024 South African general election marks a seismic inflection point in post-apartheid trajectory, signalling the definitive conclusion of three decades of African National Congress (ANC) hegemony. For the first time since1994 democratic transition, the ANC’s failed to secure an ab solute majority needing the formation of a multifaceted Government of National Unity (GNU). This paper explores the socio-economic catalysts of this contraction — specifically systemic corruption, energy crisis and persistent wealth inequality through a dual theoretical framework: secular decline of dominant party systems and structural mechanics of consociational democracy. Analysing the tension between historical power concentration and the nascent imperative for cross-cleavage cooperation, it evaluates the GNU through the lens of elite accommodation and 'compensatory consociationalism'. It interrogates the emergence of the radical 'Progressive Caucus' as a potent counter-hegemonic force, representing a significant portion of the electorate disillusioned by the perceived stagnation of material transformation. Ultimately, it assesses if this inaugural coalition era facilitates a 'second renewal' of the democratic project or signifies the terminal fragmentation of the ANC. The findings suggest that South Africa’s political stability hinges on the volatile dynamic s of multi-party governance and state's capacity to navigate profound structural inequality within a framework of precarious power-sharing.