The AI–Climate Nexus in International Relations: Climate Diplomacy, Energy Transition, and Emerging Technology Governance

Abstract

The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and global climate action has generated a transformative "AI–climate nexus" that is reconfiguring the architecture of international relations. This study investigates how AI redefines climate diplomacy, accelerates the energy transition, and reshapes geopolitical power dynamics. Utilizing a qualitative methodology comprising systematic document analysis of 127 policy and academic sources alongside four comparative case studies, the research identifies three core dynamics. First, while AI enhances emissions verification and renewable grid optimization, it introduces new vulnerabilities, including digital infrastructure lock-in and the substantial carbon footprint of computation. Second, AI drives geopolitical restructuring by shifting leverage toward states with computational supremacy and control over critical mineral supply chains. Third, it exposes severe institutional fragmentation and equity deficits, where the Global South faces acute risks of data colonialism and algorithmic marginalization. Concluding that current polycentric governance regimes are ill-equipped to manage these intersecting crises, the paper advocates for a dedicated, equity-centered multilateral framework, such as a UN AI–Climate Governance Interface. Ultimately, the study argues that aligning emerging technology governance with the Paris Agreement requires embedding the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities into global AI policy.