Spatial Patterns of Soil Properties Affect Potential Range Shifts of Temperate Forest Biodiversity Under Climate Change
TL;DR
It is demonstrated that edaphic properties are among the most important predictors for regional forest species distributions, and Integrating soil variables is therefore essential for accurate ecological modelling and for prioritising conservation in areas where soil conditions may hinder climate tracking.
Abstract
Despite the importance of soil for the distribution of forest organisms, the influence of edaphic properties on species range shifts under climate change remains poorly understood at the regional level. Current biodiversity forecasts frequently rely on climate‐only models, potentially overlooking the edaphic dimension of species niches and overestimating migration potential. Climate‐driven species shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients may be enhanced or hindered by edaphic properties. Here, we focused on predicting the potential range shifts of 2403 temperate forest species across multiple kingdoms and phyla (grouped as Tracheophytes, Bryophytes, Fungi and Lichens) under rcp 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, integrating high‐resolution digital soil maps. We employed a hierarchical modelling approach, coupling continental‐scale climate models across Europe with high‐resolution regional models in Switzerland to account for the full climate niche of the species using Nested Species Distribution Models (N‐SDM). Our results demonstrate that edaphic properties are among the most important predictors for regional forest species distributions. The inclusion of soil variables consistently reduced suitable habitat across all taxa. This suggests that soil heterogeneity governs species distributions and range shifts across taxonomic and functional groups in line with their edaphic preferences. These differences may, in turn, lead to divergent migration trajectories. Incorporating soil predictors constrained upslope shifts in tracheophytes and fungi, thereby delaying their migration, while facilitating climate tracking in bryophytes and lichens. Despite divergent migration patterns projected under climate warming, incorporating soil predictors consistently resulted in higher predicted habitat loss, except for tracheophytes under rcp8.5, which showed broadly wide responses. In conclusion, omitting high‐quality soil data from biodiversity forecasts leads to overly optimistic range shift predictions. Integrating soil variables is therefore essential for accurate ecological modelling and for prioritising conservation in areas where soil conditions may hinder climate tracking.