Unveiling the ecological dividend of smart cities: a multi-period difference-in-differences assessment of urban ecological resilience in China

Abstract

Under the dual pressures of climate warming and accelerated urbanization, agricultural ecosystems face severe challenges including shrinking land resources and intensifying non-point source pollution. While smart city initiatives can deliver technological support for coordinated urban–rural ecological governance, extant literature largely overlooks agricultural perspectives and urban–rural interactive mechanisms, leaving the underlying transmission channels underexplored. Using panel data from 264 prefecture-level cities in China over the period 2005–2022, this study incorporates agricultural technological innovation into the policy evaluation framework. Employing a multi-period difference-in-differences model, we estimate the dynamic policy-associated effects of the smart city pilot policy on urban ecological resilience, and conduct heterogeneity and mediation analyses. Our findings indicate that: first, the smart city pilot is positively associated with urban ecological resilience, with the effect exhibiting a 2-year lag. Second, this association varies significantly across city types, with more pronounced policy-associated effects observed in large cities, non-resource-based cities, and non-old industrial bases. Third, human capital accumulation and agricultural technological innovation serve as two core transmission channels. This study provides empirical evidence for the mechanism through which smart cities may enhance ecological resilience via agricultural technological innovation, and offers policy references for the coordinated development of smart cities and eco-agriculture tailored to different city characteristics. This paper constructs an interdisciplinary logic of digital governance, ecological optimization and urban agriculture, and clarifies how smart city infrastructure improves the basic ecological conditions supporting crop production and regional food security.