Climate Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity of Farmers in the Bundelkhand and Gird Agro-Climatic Zones of Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a major challenge to agricultural sustainability and rural livelihoods, particularly in regions where farming is highly dependent on climatic conditions. The present study assessed the climate change vulnerability of farming households in four selected districts of Madhya Pradesh during 2023 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework. A total of 240 farming households were selected through a multistage random sampling technique and interviewed using a structured schedule. Vulnerability was evaluated through three major components, namely exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure was assessed using indicators such as increase in average temperature, rainfall variability, frequency of droughts and dry spells, heat waves, and extreme weather events. Sensitivity was measured through soil moisture deficiency, crop yield reduction, water scarcity, pest and disease incidence, and decline in farm income, whereas adaptive capacity was assessed through adoption of water conservation measures, climate-resilient crop varieties, crop diversification, access to weather information and extension services, and crop insurance and government support schemes. The findings revealed considerable variation in vulnerability among the study districts. Morena recorded the highest exposure index (0.84) and sensitivity index (0.83), while exhibiting the lowest adaptive capacity (0.59), indicating greater susceptibility to climate-induced risks. In contrast, Tikamgarh (D2) showed the highest adaptive capacity (0.78) and the lowest levels of exposure (0.68) and sensitivity (0.58). The Composite Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) indicated that Morena (D3) was the most vulnerable (1.08), followed by Datia (0.90), Chhatarpur (0.73), and Tikamgarh (0.48). The higher vulnerability observed in Morena was primarily associated with greater climatic exposure, water scarcity, soil moisture stress, and limited adaptive resources. The study highlights the need to strengthen adaptive capacity through improved water conservation practices, climate-resilient technologies, crop diversification, access to extension services, weather-based advisories, and crop insurance schemes. Such interventions can enhance farmers’ resilience and reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural livelihoods.