Effects of institutional quality and gender imbalance on carbon intensity in China

Abstract

Climate change and rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions remain central challenges to global sustainable development, particularly in rapidly industrializing economies such as China. This study examines the long-run association between institutional quality, gender imbalance, renewable energy consumption, trade openness, and research and development (R&D) investment with carbon intensity in China over the period 1995–2024. The empirical analysis is conducted within a cointegration framework using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) estimators to obtain consistent long-run estimates. The results indicate that institutional quality, renewable energy consumption, and R&D investment are negatively associated with carbon intensity, whereas trade openness and gender imbalance are positively associated with it. These findings suggest that governance quality, clean energy transition, and technological advancement are linked with improved environmental outcomes, whereas structural and demographic imbalances may be associated with environmental pressures. The study contributes to the literature by providing an integrated assessment of institutional and socio-demographic factors alongside structural variables within a unified time-series framework. However, the results should be interpreted with caution, as the analysis reflects long-run associations rather than causal relationships and is subject to limitations related to sample size and proxy variables. Policy implications emphasize strengthening institutional effectiveness, promoting the adoption of renewable energy, and enhancing innovation systems in the context of China’s sustainability goals. Future research may explore alternative measures, structural break analysis, and short-run dynamics to validate these findings further.