Control-Aware Multi-Horizon PUE Forecasting for Coordinated Data Center Demand-Side Management and Microgrid Dispatch

Abstract

Data centers can provide demand-side flexibility by coordinating computing workloads, cooling systems, and on-site energy resources. However, facility demand varies with information technology (IT) load and cooling operation, making a fixed power usage effectiveness (PUE) or a forecast independent of planned controls inconsistent with dispatch. This paper proposes a control-aware, multi-horizon PUE forecasting framework for coordinated data center demand-side management (DSM) and microgrid dispatch. The key idea of this control-aware approach is to forecast PUE using planned workload and cooling schedules as inputs. A power-consistent Temporal Fusion Transformer (PC-TFT) predicts quantiles of non-IT overhead power and rack inlet temperature from telemetry, weather forecasts, admitted requests, and candidate workload and cooling schedules. Facility power and PUE are derived from the algebraic power balance, ensuring consistency among IT, overhead, and facility power and PUE values no lower than 1. Empirical split conformal calibration and temporally dependent scenarios characterize forecast uncertainty. A trajectory-conditioned piecewise-affine control response map with a recursive thermal state links the forecasts to a risk-informed model predictive controller that coordinates workloads, cooling, photovoltaic generation, battery storage, and grid exchange. The proposed framework is validated through EnergyPlus simulations of a Shenzhen data center, coupled with workload and microgrid simulations. Forecasting performance is compared with persistence and matched-input neural baselines, while dispatch is benchmarked against deterministic and oracle controllers. The results demonstrate improved multi-horizon PUE forecasting accuracy and empirical interval calibration, lower operating cost and peak grid demand, higher renewable energy utilization, and fewer service quality violations. These findings indicate that control-aware, power-balance-constrained probabilistic PUE forecasts can provide a reliable basis for coordinated data center DSM and microgrid dispatch.