Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Changes Driven by Urbanisation in Rwanda, a Case of Kigali City (2000-2020)

Abstract

Rapid urbanisation has significantly transformed land use and land cover (LULC) patterns in Kigali City, Rwanda, over the past two decades. This study provides a spatial and temporal assessment of LULC changes between 2000 and 2020, highlighting the drivers and implications of urban expansion. Using multi-temporal satellite imagery and GIS techniques, major LULC categories, built-up areas, agricultural land, forest cover, and wetlands, were mapped and analysed. In order to manage and monitor natural resources and development, particularly urban planning, it is essential to comprehend changes in land use and land cover. Geographic information systems and remote sensing are tried-and-true methods for evaluating changes in land cover and use that support sustainability in planning. Results reveal a substantial increase in built-up areas, expanding from the city core into peri-urban zones, largely at the expense of agricultural land and wetlands. Forest cover showed a moderate decline, while fragmented patches persisted in peripheral areas. The findings underscore the intensity of urban growth, driven by population increase, economic development, and policy initiatives promoting Kigali as a modern African capital. These changes have critical implications for ecosystem services, biodiversity, and sustainable urban planning. The study recommends integrated land management strategies that balance development with environmental conservation, including stricter protection of wetlands and promotion of green infrastructure. By documenting two decades of transformation, this research contributes to understanding urbanisation dynamics in rapidly developing African cities and provides evidence to guide future planning and policy interventions in Rwanda.