Sustainability and Ecotourism Opportunities: Evaluating the Indicators in a Complex Adaptive System

Abstract

Assessing sustainability in complex adaptive systems (CAS) is still considerable challenge, due to the prevalence of dynamic non-linear interdependent socio-ecological processes. Traditional assessment approaches often target a single outcome and have a limited ability to model the interactions and feedback loops that influence system behavior. To overcome this limitation, this research proposes a hybrid methodological framework that integrates the Ecotourism Opportunity Spectrum (ECOS), the Delphi method, and key components of CAS theory. The framework allows for the systematic identification, organization, and validation of sustainability indicators in a structured way. It uses a layered approach where indicators are first conceptualized within an integrated framework, then adapted through expert agreement, and subsequently interpreted through the theoretical perspective of CAS to better understand interdependencies and adaptive dynamics. The findings demonstrate strong expert agreement across the identified sustainability indicators and highlight the importance of understanding sustainability dimensions as interdependent rather than isolated assessment components. The CAS-based interpretation further revealed that sustainability indicators operate through adaptive and interconnected relationships, where changes in external environmental, institutional, or socio-economic conditions may influence multiple sustainability dimensions simultaneously. This study contributes to the improvement of sustainability assessment tools and supports decision-making in a more informed, flexible, and context-specific manner by providing a structured but still flexible decision-support approach.