Supply Chain Risk Analysis and Mitigation Using the House of Risk Method: A Case Study of an LPG Manufacturing Company
Abstract
Supply chain disruptions in LPG manufacturing can significantly affect procurement, production, and distribution, requiring a proactive risk management approach. This study aims to identify supply chain risks, prioritize their root causes, and develop preventive mitigation strategies by integrating the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model and the House of Risk (HOR) method. A quantitative case study was conducted using interviews, focus group discussions, and expert judgment involving five managers from procurement, operations, terminal, marine, and sales functions. The SCOR model identified 22 Risk Events and 41 Risk Agents across six supply chain processes. HOR Phase 1 prioritized seven Risk Agents, accounting for 55.59% of the total Aggregate Risk Potential, with procurement- and logistics-related risks emerging as the most critical. HOR Phase 2 proposed 13 preventive actions, including supplier performance evaluation, unloading schedule optimization, preventive maintenance, cross-functional coordination, and real-time shipment monitoring. The integration of SCOR and HOR provides a systematic framework for prioritizing critical Risk Agents and developing proactive mitigation strategies, thereby improving supply chain resilience and operational reliability in LPG manufacturing.