MODEL ADOPTION #1877: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% — E8 Intelligence Research
Abstract
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the ACCUMULATION-phase filter is a regime proxy, not an E8-geometry timing edge. It does not align with the Gods-Clock rhythm logic or FADE polarity mechanics; it is a macro overlay that would distort the model's core timing signal. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate improvement is likely an artifact of small n=120 with overlapping trades and regime clustering (low-vol ACCUMULATION periods). Even if real, it would cut trade frequency by ~35%, and the +12.2pp is not a per-trade R improvement — net PnL would be flat to slightly negative, while adding a look-ahead-bias risk from quarterly phase revisions. RISK: (1) Blocks high-RR breakout shorts in DISTRIBUTION phases, capping upside in trending markets. (2) Quarterly phase is computed from macro data not available in real-time at signal tick — introduces survivorship/look-ahead bias. (3) Reduces sample diversity, making the model more fragile to regime shifts. TEST: Before any reconsideratio Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
