Generation-Powered Inference for Distribution-Valued Outcomes

Abstract

Modern generative models increasingly produce distribution-valued outputs, such as predicted cellular responses to genetic perturbations in single-cell genomics. While these models provide valuable auxiliary information, they are inherently imperfect, creating a need for statistical methods that leverage their predictions without relying on their correctness. We propose generation-powered inference (GPI), a general framework for improving inference on distribution-valued parameters using auxiliary generative models. Focusing on Wasserstein barycenters and related distributional functionals, we introduce a function-valued bridge representation that transforms inference in the nonlinear Wasserstein space into estimation of a mean function in a Hilbert space, enabling an augmented estimation framework analogous to prediction-powered inference. We develop a family of GPI estimators with optimal information borrowing, establish consistency, asymptotic normality, and simultaneous confidence bands, and derive valid inference for linear functionals and Wasserstein distances. Simulation studies demonstrate efficiency gains over labeled-data-only methods and robust performance under generative model misspecification. We illustrate the proposed framework using a Perturb-seq study of K562 cells, where synthetic perturbation responses generated by the State foundation model are used to improve inference for pathway-level consensus gene expression distributions associated with perturbations of the 40S ribosome module.