Warming in the Arabian Gulf: insights from satellite data and climate models
Abstract
This study evaluates Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability over a 30-year period (1994–2023) and future projections in the Arabian Gulf, with a focus on the coastal waters of Qatar. Analysis of satellite observations at the select stations reveals warming trends of the order of 0.022–0.034 °C/y. The station-based analysis suggests a potential latitudinal gradient, with SST trends showing higher values at the northern stations, including those along the Qatar coast. For the first time, SST from CMIP6 climate models was compared against observations in this region. The multi-model mean demonstrates reasonable agreement at the studied locations. Climate projections indicate that SST may increase by 1.95–2.19 °C and 4.53–5.04 °C by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Multiple-linear regression using air temperature and wind speed as predictors shows a strong positive association between SST and air temperature, while wind speed shows a weaker negative association. The findings of this study show an accelerated increase in the SST, suggesting an elevated risk of thermal stress on the regional marine ecosystem in the Gulf.