Canaan as a Balance Sheet Item: Valuing a Political Promise That Outlasted Four Presidential Campaigns in Kenya

Abstract

In financial accounting, intangible assets derive their value from stakeholder recognition rather than physical substance. Using this idea as an analytical lens, this study examines how the Canaan metaphor, the biblical Promised Land invoked by the Late Rt. Hon. Raila Amolo Odinga became one of the most enduring symbolic political narratives in Kenya's democratic history. Across four presidential campaigns (1997–2017) and nearly three decades of public life, the Canaan promise was never realized through electoral victory, yet its symbolic significance continued to grow. Drawing on accounting theory, particularly intangible asset valuation, stakeholder theory, and brand equity, this study develops and introduces the Political Asset Valuation Framework (PAVF) as an analytical framework for examining rhetorical intensity, stakeholder loyalty, narrative resilience within political communication. The study is anchored on the biblical Joshua narrative to explain how delayed fulfilment can strengthen symbolic political meaning over time. A mixed-methods sequential explanatory design was employed, combining quantitative content analysis, qualitative rhetorical analysis, and longitudinal voter sentiment mapping. A corpus of 1,847 political texts published between 1997 and 2022 was analysed alongside evidence from 14 Afrobarometer survey rounds, 6 IPSOS opinion polls, and selected campaign speeches. The coding process achieved a Cohen's kappa coefficient of 0.81 (p < .001), indicating strong inter-coder reliability. Findings show that references to Canaan increased from 3.2 mentions per 1,000 words in 1997 to 11.7 mentions per 1,000 words in 2017, representing a 266% increase in symbolic deployment. Public trust in Odinga's political vision remained resilient, increasing from 58% after the 2007 election to 61% after the 2017 election. The Joshua narrative emerged as the dominant theme, presenting the Canaan vision as an enduring promise that strengthened public confidence and sustained political commitment across successive election cycles. Regression analysis showed a positive association between rhetorical intensity and voter-base retention (β = 0.43, SE = 0.07, p < .001), although the relationship is interpreted as associative rather than causal. Following the 2018 Handshake, the Canaan metaphor evolved from a personalized opposition narrative into a broader democratic discourse, reflecting a symbolic shift in political meaning. The study concludes that, when viewed through an accounting lens, the Canaan metaphor displayed characteristics similar to an appreciating intangible asset whose symbolic value persisted over time. Rather than proposing the recognition of political narratives as financial assets, the Political Asset Valuation Framework (PAVF) provides an interdisciplinary framework for analyzing how political promises create, sustain, and transform stakeholder value. The findings extend the application of accounting concepts to political communication and offer useful insights for researchers, political communication scholars, governance practitioners, and policymakers seeking to understand how symbolic narratives shape public trust, legitimacy, and democratic engagement.