High-Resolution Soil Organic Carbon Mapping with Interpretability and Uncertainty Quantification in Hungarian Croplands

Abstract

Accurate prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) at fine resolution is crucial for precision soil management; however, existing national products for Hungary remain too coarse for farm-scale applications. Focusing on Hungarian croplands, we developed a 30 m resolution SOC map using multi-temporal bare-soil composites, DEM derivatives, SHAP interpretability and bootstrap uncertainty. Among five evaluated algorithms, the GBDT model achieved the best performance (test R2 = 0.518, RMSE = 4.498 g·kg−1, MAE = 3.499 g·kg−1, RPIQ = 2.229, LCCC = 0.621). SHAP analysis revealed pronounced nonlinear effects of spectral and topographic variables within this modeling framework, with spectral predictors playing a dominant role in SOC prediction. Furthermore, the bootstrap uncertainty framework yielded a Prediction Interval Coverage Probability of 94.59% at the 95% confidence level, indicating reliable interval estimation for the test set. Spatial patterns of uncertainty varied considerably, with higher values in the western hills and southern sands, and moderate levels in the northern low-mountain areas. Benchmark comparisons showed that our 30 m map captures fine-scale heterogeneity often smoothed over by coarser products, while the uncertainty layer supports risk-aware interpretation. Overall, this study provides a regionally calibrated framework for mapping in similar heterogeneous agricultural landscapes, providing practical insights for local management.