Author

Alexander Gnedin

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Preprint Aug 2026

The Dual-Population Benchmark Model

Motivated by Fisher's and Hill's \cite{Fisher,Hill} ideas of ranking and pivotal quantities, we introduce a planar Poisson process (PPP) model in which the negative component \(\Pi_-\), acted upon by a choice operator {\rm C}, supplies a set of past benchmarks that divide the future points of the positive component \(\...

Alexander Gnedin · 0 citations

Preprint Aug 2026

Exchangeable Testing Against an Unknown Benchmark

The present work sets up the Bayesian machinery that determines the posterior distribution of the running rank of the benchmark rank in purely combinatorial terms, and results in an explicitly computable predictive probability of winning against a latent benchmark.

Alexander Gnedin · 1 citation